Li Ma, *Shuyi Feng, Pytrik Reidsma, Futian Qu, Nico Heerink, 2014，Identifying entry points to improve fertilizer use efficiency in Taihu Basin, China, Land Use Policy，37，pp 52-59(SSCI)

Abstract:

This study examined how agricultural households involved in China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program(SLCP) could respond to expected changes in environmental and livestock policies and changing com-modity prices. We calibrated a farm household model using 2009 survey data collected in northeast GansuProvince, China, and examined the responses of four different household groups. Household groups weredistinguished based on the resources they possessed for either cropping, livestock husbandry or off-farm employment. We also calculated the opportunity cost of converting sloping land from grain cropproduction to perennial grass production and included the net value of the replacement crop in thesecalculations. Our model simulations indicated that subsistence-oriented households were most likely toparticipate in the SLCP, and that SLCP payment reductions could have large negative income effects forthis group. Reductions in SLCP payments increased income inequality among households in the studyarea. Migration- and cropping-oriented households have fewer incentives to participate in the SLCP.With rising commodity prices, SLCP payments need to rise to avoid that subsistence-oriented householdsreconvert their land from perennial grasses to annual grain crops. Local government policies related tolivestock production are being devised in Gansu as a method to lift incomes, and these policies could alsohave positive environmental benefits by increasing grass production on sloping land. The introductionof these livestock promotion policies had modest income effects but did not alter the area grown withgrasses under the SLCP.